Enrollment Report & Capacity Analysis

  • Every three to four years, the Board of Education updates their enrollment projections. Prepared by University of North Carolina demographer Dr. John Kasarda, the 2017 Enrollment Projections Report is an update to the District's 2013 Report. To prepare the report, Dr. Kasarda reviews population and housing dynamics and analyzes recent enrollment patterns, including comparing graduating seniors to incoming kindergartners, to make projections for future enrollment. Dr. Kasarda provides three series of projections: Series A (less students than anticipated), Series B (anticipated number of students) and Series C (greater than anticipated number of students). Historically, Dr. Kasarda's Series B projections have shown accurate for enrollment across the District.

    In conjunction with enrollment projections, the Board of Education asked staff to take a deeper look at classroom utilization to provide further understanding of how we are using the space at all of our schools. The full presentation and 2017 Enrollment Projections are available below. After reviewing enrollment projections and building utilization, key takeaways include:

    • Based on Series B projections, enrollment district-wide should remain stable for the next 10 years and consistent to today's enrollment of just under 13,000
    • Based on Series B projections, the classroom utilization analysis indicates that all schools are needed and appropriately utilized
    • Special populations that impact space, like special education and English learners, is expected to increase